HW #8: Good Science vs. Bad Science: Asteroid 1997-XF11

Whenever science makes a discovery, the devil grabs it while the angels are debating the best way to use it.  ~Alan Valentine

25 points - Due: Thursday 4/15 in class at 10:30 AM

A few years ago an asteroid was detected that, upon initial review of the data, held the potential for colliding with our planet in the year 2028. Its designation was Asteroid 1997-XF11. Yet, when researchers reviewed earlier pictures of the sky that also included the asteroid, its actual orbital path was recalculated and found to miss our planet in 2028 (and even farther into the future) by a wide margin.

1) Please read:

•  Mile-wide Asteroid to Pass Closer than Moon's Orbit in 2028 by Brian G. Marsden, NASA, published during a press conference held on 11 March 1998, available online at: http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc031298.html (scroll down to find the article),  and
   
•  Asteroid on course for near-collision with Earth,  from CNN published March 12, 1998, the associated "reaction" story, at http://www.cnn.com/TECH/space/9803/11/asteroid/index.html, and
   
•  Asteroid a Threat in 2028 by Malcolm Browne, the New York Times story of March 11, 1998; this article is linked in the Astroportal Class site.
   

2) Then read:

• Asteroid Will Miss Earth by "Comfortable Distance" in 2028, published by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) group, on 12 March 1998 at  http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/releases/98/asteroid.html.  
   
• NASA: Asteroid to miss Earth by a wide margin, published by CNN about 22 hours later the same day, the associated "reaction" story,  at  http://www.cnn.com/TECH/space/9803/12/asteroid.miss/

After reading the articles, discuss them with your friends, family, or co-workers, and then write a brief  a short essay of about 250-500 words, spell-checked and including a fully-formatted and complete bibliography of these articles, with your thoughts about:

a) Was it incorrect for scientists to originally broadcast of the possibilities for a collision in 2028, based on the data they had at the time?

b) Did the media, and public, over-react to the initial news? Did you, your friends, or family ask questions based on what you heard, regarding how the data was collected, or what other data were required to confirm or rule out the possible collision?

c) Was the overall experience, from initial observations, analysis, review, publishing, and subsequent re-examination of other data, an example of "good science" or "bad science"? Explain why you feel that way. Did others not in our class feel different from you? Why?

Please note you can if you want POST your assignment on ASTROPORTAL (and you are encouraged to do so!)  If you chose not to use that resource in the class, you should turn in your homework, typed, on paper, to me by the due date. 

Additional Resources to check out; you can actually see images at the Sky Projects site, and see more about the data at the site authored by Chamberlin and Chodas.

Chamberlin, A. and Chodas, P. (2003) Asteroid 1997 XF11 (Earth Close-Approach) NASA Near-Earth Object Program. JPL Solar System Dynamics.  Last updated 10/23/06. http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/1997xf11.html

Chapman, C. (1998) HAZARD FROM THE SKIES? The Asteroid Impact Scare of Mid-March 1998. Southwest Research Institute.Last updated 22 April 1998. http://www.boulder.swri.edu/clark/fx11.html

Hoette, V. (2003) Sky Projects: Asteroid 1997XF11. Hands-On Universe Project. Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory.  http://hou.lbl.gov/~vhoette/Explorations/SkyProjects/1997xf11a.html

Marsden, B. (1998) ONE-MILE-WIDE ASTEROID TO PASS CLOSE TO THE EARTH IN 2028. Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA). Updated 3/12/98.http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/iau/pressinfo/1997XF11.html

Note that this site originally held the actual press release on 3/11, and then a revision on 3/12.  These have been deleted and the combination is the only official record being offered by the CfA to the public about the event.

Marsden, B. (1998) HOW THE ASTEROID STORY HIT: AN ASTRONOMER REVEALS HOW A DISCOVERY SPUN OUT OF CONTROL.  Updated 3/28/98. Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA).  http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/cfa/ps/pressinfo/1997XF11Globe.html.
 

Note that this site originally held the actual excerpt through May 2007.  This has been deleted and the article now seems be only available online at http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc033098.html. Scroll down to find the article.

Phillips, T. (2002) Halloween Asteroid.  Science@Nasa. Oct. 31, 2002. http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2002/31oct_1997xf11.htm

Extra Credit Suggestion

Search for other articles about near-miss or "Near-Earth-Orbiting" objects that have been printed in the last 10 years.  Use Chabot College Library's Lexis-Nexis Academic Online Database: http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe. (Search for "Asteroid" or "Earth Impact") .  Include a summary of the article, and your thoughts.  And as always, include a properly formatted bibliographic citation. If you haven't used the online databases before, they are wonderfully rich and fairly easy to use.  If you are on-campus, you can access them directly; the connection to the source is automatic.  If you are off-campus, you can still access the source but you must first enter your Chabot Student Number.  Instructions for off-campus access are available at the Chabot Library website.