HW#6: Scientific Research - How can we model complex behavior?

The usual approach of science of constructing a mathematical model cannot answer the questions of why there should be a universe for the model to describe.
Why does the universe go to all the bother of existing? - Stephen Hawking
 

50 points total - 30 for your post, 20 for your replies/questions.

1.  Background Investigation

Read this short article, characteristic of what appears in the press about the issue of Global Warming:

Leifert, H. (2003) New Climate Model Predicts Greater 21st Century Warming. American Geophysical Union News. Retrieved September 19, 2008 from http://www.agu.org/sci_soc/prrl/prrl0312.html

This is a rather typical scientific news item; the AGU is a reputable scientific organization, the reporting is factual, scientists doing the work are mentioned by name and you can check their work.  No references are provided directly, but if you search on the primary researcher mentioned, Chris Jones, you'll see that he and other scientists have published a number of papers on the issue. 

But computer models are sometimes discounted because their results depend upon the assumptions used in modeling the behavior or phenomena in question.  If those assumptions are incorrect, or incomplete, the results can be skewed.  And just because a model is created that seems to match what has come before, does that mean it is correct to use the model to predict what is to come? Can we really trust these scientific models?

2. Climate Modeling

Now read one of the following articles..  The first, by Fred Pearce is a bit easier to digest; the second by Gavin Schmidt of NASA is a bit more technical.  You might enjoy the blog entries under Schmidt's article, though!  The third, from the IPCC, is the most challenging but most complete as well.

Schmidt, G. (2005, January 12) Is Climate Modeling Real Science? RealClimate - Climate Science from Climate Scientists. RealClimate.org. Retrieved 19 September 2008 from http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/01/is-climate-modelling-science/

Pearce, F. (2007, May 16) Climate Myths: We can't trust computer models. NewScientist.com. Retrieved 19 September 2008 from http://environment.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn11649&print=true (This is part of a larger series of articles of the same date, Global Warming, A Guide for the Perplexed, edited by Michael Le Page. (http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/dn11462)

IPCC Working Group 1 (2008, April 3) Frequently Asked Question 8.1: How Reliable Are the Models Used to Make Projections of Future Climate Change? IPCC Working Group 1:  The Physical Science Basis of Climate Change.  University Cooperation for Atmospheric Research. Retrieved September 19, 2008 from  http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/FAQ/wg1_faq-8.1.html

In your post, discuss in at least one paragraph what your thoughts are of the article you chose  Cite at least one specific sentence or thought from the article that either made sense, or was confusing!  Be sure to include the full citation of the article you selected at the bottom of your post.

3. Extra Credit: Exploring Contrary Views, and Different Models

Read one or more of the following articles, and share your thoughts.  The last two offer contrary views to the idea that computer modeling of the climate is sufficiently reliable to base action upon.

Yale University (2008, May 30). Apparent Problem With Global Warming Climate Models Resolved. ScienceDaily. Retrieved September 19, 2008, from http://www.sciencedaily.com­ /releases/2008/05/080530144943.htm

Sato, R. (2008, April 3) Are Global Warming Models Accurately Predicting Our Future? New Study Reveals the Answer—A Galaxy Interview.  The Daily Galaxy. Retrieved September 19, 2008 from http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2008/04/are-global-warm.html

This is an introductory article with the authors of the following much more detailed paper:

Reichler, T. and Kim, J. (2007, September) How Well do Coupled Models Simulate Today’s Climate? Department of Meteorology, University of Utah. Retrieved September 19, 2008 from http://www.inscc.utah.edu/~reichler/publications/papers/Reichler_07_BAMS_CMIP.pdf

Schmitt, J. (2007, February 28). Numerical Models, Integrated Circuits and Global Warming Theory.  The American Thinker. Retrieved September 19, 2008 from http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/02/numerical_models_integrated_ci.html  (This article's thesis is that computer models of climate are not sufficiently reliable to be used to make policy.)

Wiley-Blackwell (2007, December 12). New Study Increases Concerns About Climate Model Reliability. ScienceDaily. Retrieved September 19, 2008, from http://www.sciencedaily.com­ /releases/2007/12/071211101623.htm

Note that computer models aren't limited to the science behind Global Warming - they are also being developed to explore what its consequences might be.  The following article offers an excellent introduction to Global Warming, and then discusses how an *economic* model has been developed to help understand what might result.  I highly recommend this paper.

Nordhaus, (2007, July 24) I. Summary for the Concerned Citizen from The Challenge of Global Warming; Economic Models and Environmental Policy. Yale University. Retrieved September 19, 2008 from  http://nordhaus.econ.yale.edu/dice_mss_072407_all.pdf

                    Read Section I of this paper, starting from page 9 to the top of page 18, stopping at "discount rate."